Santosh Saladi on LinkedIn: ๐ƒ๐จ๐ž๐ฌ ๐™๐ž๐ฉ๐ญ๐จ'๐ฌ $5 ๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฏ๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฆ๐š๐ค๐žโ€ฆ (2024)

Santosh Saladi

Lead Product Manager, Monetization @ Reliance Retail | IIMA MBA, CFA

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๐ƒ๐จ๐ž๐ฌ ๐™๐ž๐ฉ๐ญ๐จ'๐ฌ $5 ๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฏ๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฆ๐š๐ค๐ž ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ฌ๐ž? ๐‡๐ž๐ซ๐ž'๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ก๐ฒ ๐ˆ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ž๐ฌ!Zepto's recent $340 million fundraise at a $5 billion valuation is a bold investment on Indian urban consumer. But why are VCs willing to pay such a high price? In my view, it's all about "๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ ๐ž๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐ž๐ง๐œ๐ž".We're seeing a shift in consumer behavior, especially among the top 1-2% of urban consumers. This shift towards quick commerce seems irreversible, and over the long term, if consumers continue to pay delivery charges, this deal could be a real bargain.Fundamentally, ecommerce grew big because of 3 reasons. Consumers want cheaper goods, high selection and at a faster pace. Quick commerce, ticks two of these points and is already offering large enough selection for daily needs. Here's how I see Zepto compared to DMart:Zepto is currently at $1.5 billion annualized sales rate, 400 dark stores. Raised $665M at $3.6B valuation in June 2024, followed by $340M at $5B valuation, 3.3x annual sales.DMart (2017): Raised 1870 Cr at ~$2.7B valuation, ~1.6x annual sales. Currently valued at ~$38B with 5% profit net margins. Current sales are at $6 B. So why are the VCs betting so confidently on Zepto?Quick commerce growth rate is outpacing traditional retail.Zepto can personalize at scaleโ€”higher SKU count leads to better experiences.Higher margin products give them an edge over brick-and-mortar stores.Sure, the next 3-5 years will require substantial burn, and competition will increase, driving up CAC. But early entrants like Zepto have an advantage in forming consumer habits. If they can continue delivering and eventually pass delivery charges onto customers, Zepto's cost structure could align with larger brick and mortar players.Indian retail market will hit 1 Trillion USD by 2027 and there is enough space for all forms of organized retail players and unorganized too. IMO, no format will get disrupted but quick commerce will be a niche of it's own, possibly grabbing some share from ecommerce. What do you think about the deal?---Kindly note that these are my personal views and do not represent my employer's views.

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Aditya Singh

Trader || Commodity Operations|| International Business

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if the traffic conditions keep on deteriorating as road infra creaks under the increasing burden of vehicles , expect Zepto to be more and more popular. However the real test would be when the delivery prices are increased

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  • Santosh Saladi

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Santosh Saladi on LinkedIn: ๐ƒ๐จ๐ž๐ฌ ๐™๐ž๐ฉ๐ญ๐จ'๐ฌ $5 ๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฏ๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฆ๐š๐ค๐žโ€ฆ (2024)
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